Predicting Surgical Site Infection Risk after Spinal Tuberculosis Surgery: Development and Validation of a Nomogram

BACKGROUND: The purpose of this study was to predict the surgical site infection risk after spinal tuberculosis surgery based on a nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: We collected the clinical data of patients who underwent spinal tuberculosis surgery in our hospital and included all the data in the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis. Next, the selected parameters were analyzed using logistic regression. The logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis were further used to obtain statistically significant parameters. These parameters were then used to construct a nomogram. The C-index, ROC curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to assess the predictive ability and accuracy of the nomogram, whereas internal verification was used to calculate the C-index by bootstrapping with 1,000 resamples. RESULTS: A total of 394 patients with spinal tuberculosis surgery were included in the study, of whom 76 patients had surgical site infections whereas 318 patients did not. The predicted risk of surgical site infection in the nomogram ranged between 0.01 and 0.98. Both the value of the C-index of the nomogram (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62–0.76) and the area under the curve (AUC) were found to be 0.69. The net benefit of the model ranged between 0.01 and 0.99. In contrast, the C-index calculated by the internal verification method of the nomogram was found to be 0.68. CONCLUSIONS: The risk factors predicting surgical site infection after spinal tuberculosis surgery included albumin, lesion segment, operation time, and incision length.