Increased intrathecal neurofilament light and immunoglobulin M predict severe disability in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND: Emerging evidence supports that determination of intrathecal immunoglobulin M (IgM) synthesis (ITMS) and neurofilament light (NfL) concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) may be clinically useful as disease severity biomarkers in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). METHODS: Monocentric observational longitudinal cohort study in which prospectively collected data were retrospectively retrieved. Included were patients with RRMS (n=457) who had a diagnostic investigation including analysis of ITMS and CSF neurofilament light (cNfL). ITMS was calculated with the linear index formula, the intrathecal fraction of IgM according to Reiber (IgM(IF)), and by qualitative determination of oligoclonal IgM bands (OCMB). Univariable and multivariable models were performed to predict Evidence of Disease Activity-3 (EDA-3) status within 24 months from onset, and the risk of Expanded Disability Status Score (EDSS) ≥3 and ≥6. RESULTS: All investigated methods to calculate ITMS significantly predicted evidence of disease activity (EDA-3) within 24 months. IgM(IF)>0% showed the strongest association with EDA-3 status (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 3.7, 95%CI 2.7-5, p<0.001). Combining IgM-index>0.1 or OCMB with increased cNfL were strong predictors of EDSS≥3 (for cNfL (+) /IgM-index (+) : aHR 4.6, 95%CI 2.6-8.2, p<0.001) and EDSS≥6 (aHR 8.2, 95%CI 2.3-30, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In a real-world setting, ITMS was a useful biomarker in early RRMS to predict disabling MS and its prognostic value was even stronger in combination with cNfL. Our data suggest that determination of ITMS and cNfL should be included in the diagnostic work-up of RRMS for prognostic purposes and in decisions of disease-modifying therapy.