Risk of all-cause mortality according to the European Society of Cardiology risk categories in individuals with type 2 diabetes: the Renal Insufficiency And Cardiovascular Events (RIACE) Italian Multicenter Study

AIMS: The 2019 and 2021 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) classifications stratified patients with type 2 diabetes into three categories according to the 10-year risk of death from atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The very high-risk category included individuals with established ASCVD, target organ damage (TOD), and/or, in the 2019 classification only, ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors. We assessed risk of all-cause mortality according to the two ESC classifications in the Renal Insufficiency And Cardiovascular Events cohort. METHODS: Participants (n = 15,773) were stratified based on the presence of ASCVD, TOD, and ASCVD risk factors at baseline (2006–2008). Vital status was retrieved in 2015. RESULTS: Less than 1% of participants fell in the moderate-risk category. According to the 2019 classification, ~ 1/3 fell in the high-risk and ~ 2/3 in the very high-risk category, whereas the opposite occurred with the 2021 classification. Mortality risk increased across categories according to both classifications. Among very high-risk patients, mortality was much lower in those with ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors and almost equal in those with TOD and ASCVD ± TOD, using the 2019 classification, whereas it was much higher in those with ASCVD + TOD and, to a lesser extent, TOD only than in those with ASCVD only, using the 2021 classification. CONCLUSIONS: The negligible number of moderate-risk patients suggests that these classifications might overestimate risk of ASCVD death. Downgrading patients with ≥ 3 additional ASCVD risk factors to the high-risk category is consistent with mortality data. Risk of death is very high in the presence of TOD irrespective of established ASCVD. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00715481. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00592-022-01942-8.