Colorectal cancer in the 45-to-50 age group in the United States: a National Cancer Database (NCDB) analysis

BACKGROUND: Amid increasing awareness of early-onset colorectal cancer (CRC), guidelines in the United States (US) recently lowered the recommended routine CRC screening age from 50 to 45 in average-risk individuals. There are little data on the number of patients in this age group diagnosed with CRC prior to these changes. Our objective was to audit the historic CRC case trends and impact of CRC in the 45-to-50-year-old category prior to new screening recommendations. METHODS: Colorectal adenocarcinoma cases in 45-to-50-year-old patients were queried from the NCDB (2004–2017). Cases were stratified by sex, race, and site. The disability-adjusted lost years (DALY) and lost earnings were estimated. The average annual percentage changes (AAPC) of CRC incidence were estimated using jointpoint analysis. The main outcome measures were DALY and lost earnings. Secondary outcome measures were the 2004–2017 AAPC and the cumulative incidence of potential CRC cases in the 45-to-50 cohort through 2030 without guideline changes. RESULTS: 67,442 CRC patients in the 45-to-50 demographic were identified. The CRC burden resulted 899,905 DALY and $17 billion in lost earnings. The 2004–2017 AAPC was 1.6%, with an estimated 13-year increase of 25%. There were sex-, race-, and anatomic site-specific discrepancies with estimated 13-year increases of 30% for males, 110% for American Indian/ Alaska Natives/ Asian American/ Pacific Islander races, and 31% for rectal cancer by 2030. CONCLUSION: CRC has been steadily increasing in the 45-to-50 age group, with tremendous disability and cost ensuing. There is great potential benefit from lowering the recommended routine CRC screening age to 45. Targeted intervention could ensure the most vulnerable segments benefit from the new guidelines, in both reducing the incidence and improving survivorship in CRC patients. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT: [Image: see text] SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00464-021-08929-6.