Changes in primary care management of atrial fibrillation patients following the shift from warfarin to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants: a Norwegian population based study

BACKGROUND: To assess baseline characteristics, drug utilisation and healthcare use for oral anticoagulants (OACs) following the introduction of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants among patients with atrial fibrillation in primary care in Norway. METHODS: In this retrospective longitudinal cohort study, 92,936 patients with atrial fibrillation were identified from the Norwegian Primary Care Registry between 2010 and 2018. Linking to the Norwegian Prescription Database, we identified 64,112 patients (69.0%) treated with OACs and 28,824 (31%) who were untreated. Participants were followed until 15 May 2019, death, or loss to follow-up, whichever came first. For each OAC, predictors of initiation were assessed by modelling the probability of initiating the OAC using logistic regression, and predictors of the first switch after index date were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. The numbers of primary care visits per quarter by index OAC were plotted and analysed with negative binomial regression analyses offset for the log of days at risk. RESULTS: Patients treated with OACs were older, had more comorbidities, and higher CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores than untreated patients. However, the mean CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc in the non-OAC group was 1.58 for men and 3.13 for women, suggesting an indication for OAC therapy. The percentage of patients with atrial fibrillation initiating OACs increased from 59% in 2010 to 79% in 2018. Non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant use increased throughout the study period to 95% of new OAC-treated patients in 2018, and switches from warfarin to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants were common. The persistence of OAC treatment was > 60% after four years, with greatest persistence for apixaban. Patients treated with non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants had fewer primary care visits compared with those treated with warfarin (incidence rate ratio: 0.73, 95% confidence interval 0.71 to 0.75). CONCLUSION: In this Norwegian primary care study, we found that the shift from warfarin to non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants was successful with 95% use in patients initiating OACs in 2018, and associated with fewer general practitioner visits. Persistence with OACs was high, particularly for apixaban. However, many patients eligible for treatment with OACs remained untreated. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-022-01824-6.