Variation in Vegetation and Its Driving Force in the Pearl River Delta Region of China

Vegetation is an important part of a regional ecological environment and vegetation coverage can reflect the health of a regional ecological environment. Through an analysis of and research into changes in the vegetation NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index) and its driving factors in the Pearl River Delta region, the spatial–temporal pattern of vegetation changes and the driving factors can be measured. It is of significance to improve the ecological environment quality of the Pearl River Delta region and to promote the sustainable development of the regional economy. Based on SPOT/VEGETATION NDVI satellite remote sensing data, meteorological data, population density data, and gross domestic product (GDP) data during the period 2000–2019, this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial trends of the vegetation NDVI as well as the climate factors and human activities in the Pearl River Delta on a pixel scale. The correlations between the vegetation NDVI and precipitation, temperature, population density, GDP, and other factors were also estimated. The results showed that during the period 2000–2019, the annual mean NDVI significantly increased, with a growth rate of 0.0044 (R(2) = 0.71, p < 0.0001). The NDVI in the center of the Pearl River Delta was lower than that in other regions. As far as the driving factors of the NDVI were concerned, among the climatic factors, the response of the NDVI to temperature was higher than that for precipitation in the Pearl River Delta. Human activities had changed from a negative hindering effect on the NDVI to a positive promoting effect. The correlation between the NDVI and the GDP was higher than that for population density. Policy factors such as the “Grain for Green Project” as well as an increase in the sown area of crops and land use changes were also important driving factors of the NDVI. It is suggested that the NDVI can be increased by the implementation of artificial afforestation policies, building a “Green City”, and moderately increasing the sown area of crops.