An Investigation of Risk Factors Associated with Tuberculosis Transmission in South Africa Using Logistic Regression Model

Background: South Africa has a high burden of tuberculosis (TB) disease and is currently not meeting the national and international reduction outcome targets. The TB prevalence rate of South Africa in 2015 was estimated at approximately 690 per 100,000 population per year, with an incidence rate of about 834 per 100,000 population. This study examines risk factors associated with development of TB in South Africa. Materials and Methods: This study utilised readily available open access secondary data of 2019 South African Health and Demographic Survey from Statistics South Africa (StatsSA) website, which was collected from self-reported information relating to TB in the household questionnaire. The factors analysed were of demographic, socio-economic and health nature. Bivariate and binary logistics analyses were carried out from which appropriate inferences were drawn on the association of TB with demographic, socio-economic and health factors. Results: In multivariate analysis the study revealed that age, personal weight, smoke, alcohol, asthma, province of residence, race and usually coughing were significantly associated with an increased risk of having TB. Conclusions and Recommendations: The results strongly suggest that young and older people coming from black and coloured ethic groups, who are asthmatic and cough frequently, and/or smoking and consuming alcohol are at high risk of developing TB. In addition, those who are overweight appear to have an increased risk of TB transmission, with the Western Cape, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape, Free State, North West and Gauteng being the hardest hit provinces. Hence, the study recommends that these factors must be taken into account in the planning and development of TB policies in order to work successfully towards the achievement of sustainable development goal of reducing TB by 80% before 2030.