Predicting Distribution of the Asian Longhorned Beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) and Its Natural Enemies in China

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis, is a worldwide invasive creature that has invaded the world for more than 20 years. Although previous studies have predicted the distribution range of A. glabripennis, this single species distribution prediction cannot provide more potential management strategies for the control of invasive organisms. In this study, we incorporated two important natural enemies (D. helophoroides and D. major) of A. glabripennis into the prediction model. We found that climate change led to the northward migration of the suitable areas of A. glabripennis and its natural enemies. In China, only the occurrence regions of A. glabripennis are mainly distributed in parts of Xinjiang, Xizang, and Qinghai. In other occurrence regions of A. glabripennis, control models of A. glabripennis + D. helophoroides, A. glabripennis + D. major, or A. glabripennis + D. helophoroides + D. major were found. Fortunately, part of the areas in Xinjiang, Xizang, and Qinghai are potentially suitable for D. helophoroides and D. major under future climatic conditions. Therefore, these two natural enemies may be used in these regions to control A. glabripennis in the future. ABSTRACT: The Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis, is a forestry pest found worldwide. A. glabripennis causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of A. glabripennis. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China, and their suitable areas were superimposed to pinpoint which regions are potentially appropriate to release or establish natural enemy populations under current and future conditions. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of A. glabripennis was greater than those of D. helophoroides and D. major. From current conditions to 2090, the suitable area of A. glabripennis, D. helophoroides, and D. major will increase by 1.44 × 10(4), 20.10 × 10(4), and 31.64 × 10(4) km(2), respectively. Northern China (e.g., Xinjiang, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia), where A. glabripennis causes more serious damage, is also a potentially suitable area for D. helophoroides and D. major, and this provides a potential strategy for the management of A. glabripennis. Therefore, we suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests.