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Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics
COVID-19 epidemics exhibited multiple waves regionally and globally since 2020. It is important to understand the insight and underlying mechanisms of the multiple waves of COVID-19 epidemics in order to design more efficient non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies to prev...
Autores principales: | , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Springer US
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9409627/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36008498 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01061-z |
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author | Tang, Biao Zhou, Weike Wang, Xia Wu, Hulin Xiao, Yanni |
author_facet | Tang, Biao Zhou, Weike Wang, Xia Wu, Hulin Xiao, Yanni |
author_sort | Tang, Biao |
collection | PubMed |
description | COVID-19 epidemics exhibited multiple waves regionally and globally since 2020. It is important to understand the insight and underlying mechanisms of the multiple waves of COVID-19 epidemics in order to design more efficient non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies to prevent future waves. We propose a multi-scale model by linking the behaviour change dynamics to the disease transmission dynamics to investigate the effect of behaviour dynamics on COVID-19 epidemics using game theory. The proposed multi-scale models are calibrated and key parameters related to disease transmission dynamics and behavioural dynamics with/without vaccination are estimated based on COVID-19 epidemic data (daily reported cases and cumulative deaths) and vaccination data. Our modeling results demonstrate that the feedback loop between behaviour changes and COVID-19 transmission dynamics plays an essential role in inducing multiple epidemic waves. We find that the long period of high-prevalence or persistent deterioration of COVID-19 epidemics could drive almost all of the population to change their behaviours and maintain the altered behaviours. However, the effect of behaviour changes fades out gradually along the progress of epidemics. This suggests that it is essential to have not only persistent, but also effective behaviour changes in order to avoid subsequent epidemic waves. In addition, our model also suggests the importance to maintain the effective altered behaviours during the initial stage of vaccination, and to counteract relaxation of NPIs, it requires quick and massive vaccination to avoid future epidemic waves. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9409627 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer US |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-94096272022-08-26 Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics Tang, Biao Zhou, Weike Wang, Xia Wu, Hulin Xiao, Yanni Bull Math Biol Special Issue: Mathematics and Covid-19 COVID-19 epidemics exhibited multiple waves regionally and globally since 2020. It is important to understand the insight and underlying mechanisms of the multiple waves of COVID-19 epidemics in order to design more efficient non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination strategies to prevent future waves. We propose a multi-scale model by linking the behaviour change dynamics to the disease transmission dynamics to investigate the effect of behaviour dynamics on COVID-19 epidemics using game theory. The proposed multi-scale models are calibrated and key parameters related to disease transmission dynamics and behavioural dynamics with/without vaccination are estimated based on COVID-19 epidemic data (daily reported cases and cumulative deaths) and vaccination data. Our modeling results demonstrate that the feedback loop between behaviour changes and COVID-19 transmission dynamics plays an essential role in inducing multiple epidemic waves. We find that the long period of high-prevalence or persistent deterioration of COVID-19 epidemics could drive almost all of the population to change their behaviours and maintain the altered behaviours. However, the effect of behaviour changes fades out gradually along the progress of epidemics. This suggests that it is essential to have not only persistent, but also effective behaviour changes in order to avoid subsequent epidemic waves. In addition, our model also suggests the importance to maintain the effective altered behaviours during the initial stage of vaccination, and to counteract relaxation of NPIs, it requires quick and massive vaccination to avoid future epidemic waves. Springer US 2022-08-25 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC9409627/ /pubmed/36008498 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01061-z Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | Special Issue: Mathematics and Covid-19 Tang, Biao Zhou, Weike Wang, Xia Wu, Hulin Xiao, Yanni Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title | Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title_full | Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title_fullStr | Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed | Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title_short | Controlling Multiple COVID-19 Epidemic Waves: An Insight from a Multi-scale Model Linking the Behaviour Change Dynamics to the Disease Transmission Dynamics |
title_sort | controlling multiple covid-19 epidemic waves: an insight from a multi-scale model linking the behaviour change dynamics to the disease transmission dynamics |
topic | Special Issue: Mathematics and Covid-19 |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9409627/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36008498 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11538-022-01061-z |
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