Using the Residency Matched Method and Intent to Practice Method to Estimate Primary Care Workforce Production

INTRODUCTION: Many medical schools overestimate the percentage of their graduates who enter the primary care workforce based on the “first-certificate” residency their graduates enter. To rectify this problem, Deutchman and colleagues proposed a new method of estimation. The objective of this study was to compare results from the traditional residency match and Deutchman methods to the actual percentage of University of Kansas School of Medicine (KUSM) graduates who practice primary care after completing medical school and all residency and subspeciality fellowship training. METHODS: A retrospective study was conducted using a convenience sample of KUSM graduates from 2003–2014. Percentages of graduates classified as primary care by the traditional Residency Match Primary Care Method (RMPCM) and the percentages of graduates identified as primary care by Deutchman’s Intent to Practice Primary Care Method (IPPCM) were compared with the actual percentage of graduates who eventually entered the primary care workforce. RESULTS: Of the 1,944 KUSM graduates identified during the study period, the RMPCM predicted a 48.1% primary care output rate. The Deutchman’s IPPCM predicted a 22.8% primary care output rate. The actual known percentage of graduates practicing primary care was 34.2%. CONCLUSIONS: Neither the RMPCM nor the Deutchman’s IPPCM performed well in predicting the percentage or number of KUSM graduates who eventually practiced primary care. Due to predictions for the shortage of primary care physicians, there is a need to identify a method that more accurately predicts the medical schools’ contribution to the primary care workforce.