Controlling the lodging risk of rice based on a plant height dynamic model

BACKGROUND: Rice is a key global food crop. Rice lodging causes a reduction in plant height and crop yield, and rice is prone to lodging in the late growth stage because of panicle initiation. We used two water irrigation modes and four fertilizer application intervals to investigate the relationship between lodging and various cultivation conditions over 2 years. RESULTS: Plant height data were collected and combined with aerial images, revealing that rice lodging was closely related to the nitrogen fertilizer content. The aerial images demonstrated that lodging mainly occurred in the fields treated with a high-nitrogen fertilizer, and analysis of variance revealed that plant height was signifi-cantly affected by nitrogen fertilizer. These results demonstrated that rice plant height in the booting stage was significantly positively correlated with the lodging results (r = 0.67) and nega-tively correlated with yield (r = − 0.46). If the rice plant height in the booting stage exceeded 70.7 cm and nitrogen fertilizer was continuously applied, according to the predicted growing curve of plant height, the plant would be at risk of lodging. Results showed more rainfall accumulated in the later stage of rice growth accompanied by strong instantaneous gusts, the risk of lodging in-creased. CONCLUSION: The results provide predictions that can be applied in intelligent production and lodging risk management, and they form the basis of cultivation management and response policies for each growth period. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40529-022-00356-7.