Construction of a prognostic risk model based on apoptosis-related genes to assess tumor immune microenvironment and predict prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a serious malignant disease with high incidence, high mortality and poor prognosis. This study aimed to establish a novel signature based on apoptosis-related genes (ARGs) to predict the prognosis of HCC. METHODS: Expression data of HCC from TCGA database and the list of 160 ARGs from MSigDB were downloaded. The genes included in apoptosis-related signature were selected by univariate Cox regression analysis and lasso Cox regression analysis. Subsequently, a prognostic risk model for scoring patients was developed, and then separates patients into two groups. Kaplan–Meier and receiver operating characteristic analysis were performed to evaluate the prognostic value of the model in TCGA, GEO and ICGC databases. The characteristics of immune cell infiltration between two groups of HCC were investigated. Finally, a nomogram was plotted to visualize the prognosis prediction. RESULTS: Nine genes (CDC25B, DAP3, ETF1, GSR, LGALS3, MGMT, PPP2R5B, SQSTM1 and VDAC2) were included in the prognostic risk model. Survival was lower in the high-risk group. Surprisingly, the high-risk group was significantly more in immune cell infiltration and with higher immunoscore and stromalscore than in the low-risk group. In addition, the risk score was an independent prognostic factor for HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Prognostic signature comprising nine ARGs could be used as a potential prognostic factor for HCC. It also provides an important idea for further understanding the immunotherapy of HCC. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12876-022-02481-w.