The value of diffusion kurtosis imaging and intravoxel incoherent motion quantitative parameters in predicting synchronous distant metastasis of rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: The incidence and mortality rate of rectal cancer are still high, the metastasis of rectal cancer are main causes of death. The control of the distant metastasis is one of the main concerns in the treatment of locally advanced rectal cancer, but there are few studies on predicting synchronous distant metastasis (SDM) of rectal cancer. METHOD: The data of patients with rectal adenocarcinoma confirmed by endoscopic biopsy or postoperative pathology from September 2015 to May 2020 in hospital A (center 1) and hospital B (center 2) were analyzed retrospectively, including age, sex, carcinoembryonic antigen, carbohydrate antigen 19–9, tumor location, tumor length, image staging and characteristics. The average age of the 169 patients consisting of 105 males and 64 females in study is 61.2 years. All patients underwent rectal routine rectal MRI, DKI and IVIM examinations on a 3.0-T scanner. Two radiologists sketched regions of interest (ROIs) on b = 1000 s/mm(2) DKI and IVIM images to obtain quantitative parameters with FireVoxel manually. We evaluated the difference of histogram analysis, clinical and image data between SDM group and non-SDM group, and evaluated the efficacy of each index in predicting SDM of rectal cancer. RESULTS: The 90th percentile of f values in the SDM group is lower than that in the non-SDM group (29.4 ± 8.4% vs. 35 ± 17.8%, P = 0.005). CA19-9 in the SDM group is higher than that in the non-SDM group (P = 0.003). Low and high rectal cancer are more likely to develop SDM than middle rectal cancer (P = 0.05 and P = 0.047). The combination of these three indexes has a greater area under the curve (AUC) than any one index (0.801 vs. 0.685 (f (90th percentile)) and 0.627 (CA19-9), P = 0.0075 and 0.0058, respectively), and its specificity and sensitivity are 80.0% and 71.6%, respectively. When this combination is incorporated into the predictive nomogram model, the c-index is 0.801 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.730–0.871). CONCLUSIONS: IVIM quantitative parameters combine with CA19-9 and tumor location can better predict the risk of SDM of rectal cancer.