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Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand

This study aimed to develop simple diagnostic guidelines which would be useful for the early detection of severe dengue infections. Retrospective data of patients with dengue infection were reviewed. Patients with diagnosed dengue infection were categorized in line with the International Statistical...

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Autores principales: Srisuphanunt, Mayuna, Puttaruk, Palakorn, Kooltheat, Nateelak, Katzenmeier, Gerd, Wilairatana, Polrat
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9416179/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36006254
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7080162
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author Srisuphanunt, Mayuna
Puttaruk, Palakorn
Kooltheat, Nateelak
Katzenmeier, Gerd
Wilairatana, Polrat
author_facet Srisuphanunt, Mayuna
Puttaruk, Palakorn
Kooltheat, Nateelak
Katzenmeier, Gerd
Wilairatana, Polrat
author_sort Srisuphanunt, Mayuna
collection PubMed
description This study aimed to develop simple diagnostic guidelines which would be useful for the early detection of severe dengue infections. Retrospective data of patients with dengue infection were reviewed. Patients with diagnosed dengue infection were categorized in line with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A90, dengue fever; A91, dengue hemorrhagic fever; and A910, dengue hemorrhagic fever with shock. A total of 302 dengue-infected patients were enrolled, of which 136 (45%) were male and 166 (55%) were female. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine independent diagnostic predictors of severe dengue infection and to convert simple diagnostic guidelines into a scoring system for disease severity. Coefficients for significant predictors of disease severity generated by ordinal multivariable logistic regression analysis were transformed into item scores. The derived total scores ranged from 0 to 38.6. The cut-off score for predicting dengue severity was higher than 14, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.902. The predicted positive value (PPV) was 68.7% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1%. Our study demonstrates that several diagnostic parameters can be effectively combined into a simple score sheet with predictive value for the severity evaluation of dengue infection.
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spelling pubmed-94161792022-08-27 Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand Srisuphanunt, Mayuna Puttaruk, Palakorn Kooltheat, Nateelak Katzenmeier, Gerd Wilairatana, Polrat Trop Med Infect Dis Article This study aimed to develop simple diagnostic guidelines which would be useful for the early detection of severe dengue infections. Retrospective data of patients with dengue infection were reviewed. Patients with diagnosed dengue infection were categorized in line with the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD-10): A90, dengue fever; A91, dengue hemorrhagic fever; and A910, dengue hemorrhagic fever with shock. A total of 302 dengue-infected patients were enrolled, of which 136 (45%) were male and 166 (55%) were female. Multivariate analysis was conducted to determine independent diagnostic predictors of severe dengue infection and to convert simple diagnostic guidelines into a scoring system for disease severity. Coefficients for significant predictors of disease severity generated by ordinal multivariable logistic regression analysis were transformed into item scores. The derived total scores ranged from 0 to 38.6. The cut-off score for predicting dengue severity was higher than 14, with an area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC) of 0.902. The predicted positive value (PPV) was 68.7% and the negative predictive value (NPV) was 94.1%. Our study demonstrates that several diagnostic parameters can be effectively combined into a simple score sheet with predictive value for the severity evaluation of dengue infection. MDPI 2022-07-31 /pmc/articles/PMC9416179/ /pubmed/36006254 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7080162 Text en © 2022 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Srisuphanunt, Mayuna
Puttaruk, Palakorn
Kooltheat, Nateelak
Katzenmeier, Gerd
Wilairatana, Polrat
Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title_full Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title_fullStr Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title_full_unstemmed Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title_short Prognostic Indicators for the Early Prediction of Severe Dengue Infection: A Retrospective Study in a University Hospital in Thailand
title_sort prognostic indicators for the early prediction of severe dengue infection: a retrospective study in a university hospital in thailand
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9416179/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36006254
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed7080162
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