Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()

This paper deals with the analysis of the evolution of international trade after COVID-19, examining commodity prices, the shipping industry, and the influence of the cost of bunker fuel. To this end, we use techniques based on fractional integration, fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) and wavelet...

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Autor principal: Monge, Manuel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of CEPII (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales), a center for research and expertise on the world economy. 2022
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417166/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.003
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author Monge, Manuel
author_facet Monge, Manuel
author_sort Monge, Manuel
collection PubMed
description This paper deals with the analysis of the evolution of international trade after COVID-19, examining commodity prices, the shipping industry, and the influence of the cost of bunker fuel. To this end, we use techniques based on fractional integration, fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) and wavelet analysis. Monthly data relating to heavy fuel oil prices and the shipping market from October 2011 to September 2021 are used. Using fractional integration in the post-break period, a lack of mean reversion is observed in all cases, which means that, for the commodity prices and shipping market indices, a change in trend will be permanent after COVID-19 unless strong measures are carried out by the authorities. Using wavelet analysis, we conclude that the demand shock represented in the indices mentioned above has led the price of fuel oil since the beginning of the pandemic, and bunker fuel is not relevant in determining the cost of maritime transport.
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spelling pubmed-94171662022-08-30 Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis() Monge, Manuel International Economics Article This paper deals with the analysis of the evolution of international trade after COVID-19, examining commodity prices, the shipping industry, and the influence of the cost of bunker fuel. To this end, we use techniques based on fractional integration, fractional cointegration VAR (FCVAR) and wavelet analysis. Monthly data relating to heavy fuel oil prices and the shipping market from October 2011 to September 2021 are used. Using fractional integration in the post-break period, a lack of mean reversion is observed in all cases, which means that, for the commodity prices and shipping market indices, a change in trend will be permanent after COVID-19 unless strong measures are carried out by the authorities. Using wavelet analysis, we conclude that the demand shock represented in the indices mentioned above has led the price of fuel oil since the beginning of the pandemic, and bunker fuel is not relevant in determining the cost of maritime transport. The Author. Published by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of CEPII (Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales), a center for research and expertise on the world economy. 2022-12 2022-08-26 /pmc/articles/PMC9417166/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.003 Text en © 2022 The Author Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Monge, Manuel
Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title_full Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title_fullStr Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title_full_unstemmed Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title_short Bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the COVID-19 pandemic. A time-frequency analysis()
title_sort bunker fuel, commodity prices and shipping market indices following the covid-19 pandemic. a time-frequency analysis()
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9417166/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.inteco.2022.08.003
work_keys_str_mv AT mongemanuel bunkerfuelcommoditypricesandshippingmarketindicesfollowingthecovid19pandemicatimefrequencyanalysis

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