A prediction model for worsening diabetic retinopathy after panretinal photocoagulation

BACKGROUND: As one of the severe complications of diabetes mellitus, diabetic retinopathy (DR) is the leading cause of blindness in the working age worldwide. Although panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) was standard treatment, PRP-treated DR still has a high risk of progression. Hence, this study aimed to assess the risk factors and establish a model for predicting worsening diabetic retinopathy (DR-worsening) within five years after PRP. METHODS: Patients who were diagnosed with severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy or proliferative diabetic retinopathy and treated with PRP were included, and those patients were randomly assigned to either a training or validation cohort. The multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to screen potential risk factors for DR-worsening in the training cohort. Then the model was established after including significant independent risk factors and further validated using discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: A total of 271 patients were included, and 56.46% of patients had an outcome of DR-worsening. In the training cohort (n = 135), age (odds ratio [OR] = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90–0.98), baseline best corrected visual acuity (logMAR) (OR = 10.74, 95% CI 1.84–62.52), diabetic nephropathy (OR = 9.32, 95% CI 1.49–58.46), and hyperlipidemia (OR = 3.34, 95% CI 1.05–10.66) were screened out as the independent risk factors, which were incorporated into the predictive model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration slope in the training and validation cohort were 0.79, 0.96 (95% CI 0.60–1.31), and 0.79, 1.00 (95% CI 0.66–1.34), respectively. Two risk groups were developed depending on the best cut-off value of the predicted probability, and the actual probability was 34.90% and 82.79% in the low-risk and high-risk groups, respectively (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study developed and internally validated a new model to predict the probability of DR-worsening after PRP treatment within five years. The model can be used as a rapid risk assessment system for clinical prediction of DR-worsening and identify individuals at a high risk of DR-worsening at an early stage and prescribe additional treatment. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13098-022-00892-z.