Establishment and validation of a cholesterol metabolism-related prognostic signature for hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents the most important type of liver cancer, the 5-year survival rate for advanced HCC is 2%. The heterogeneity of HCC makes previous models fail to achieve satisfactory results. The role of Cholesterol-based metabolic reprogramming in cancer has attracted more and more attention. In this study, we screened cholesterol metabolism-related genes (CMRGs) based on a systematical analysis from TCGA and GEO database. Then, we constructed a prognostic signature based on the screened 5 CMRGs: FDPS, FABP5, ANXA2, ACADL and HMGCS2. The clinical value of the five CMRGs was validated by TCGA database and HPA database. HCC patients were assigned to the high-risk and low-risk groups on the basis of median risk score calculated by the five CMRGs. We evaluated the signature in TCGA database and validated in ICGC database. The results revealed that the prognostic signature had good prognostic performance, even among different clinicopathological subgroups. The function analysis linked CMRGs with KEGG pathway, such as cell adhesion molecules, drug metabolism-cytochrome P450 and other related pathways. In addition, patients in the high-risk group exhibited characteristics of high TP53 mutation, high immune checkpoints expression and high immune cell infiltration. Furthermore, based on the prognostic signature, we identified 25 most significant small molecule drugs as potential drugs for HCC patients. Finally, a nomogram combined risk score and TNM stage was constructed. These results indicated our prognostic signature has an excellent prediction performance. This study is expected to provide a potential diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for HCC.