The impact of lockdown in Wuhan on residents confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities

OBJECTIVE: From January 23rd, 2020, lock-down measures were adopted in Wuhan, China to stop the spread of COVID-19. However, due to the approach of the Spring Festival and the nature of COVID-19, more than 6 million permanent and temporary residents of Wuhan (who were potential carriers or spreaders of the virus), left the city before the lock-down measures were implemented. This study aims to explore whether and how the population inflow from Wuhan city impacted residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreaks at the destination cities. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Based on questionnaire data and migration big data, a multiple regression model was developed to quantify the impact of the population inflow from Wuhan city on the sense of confidence of residents in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities. Scenarios were considered that varied residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities, and the overall indicators for the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19. A marginal effect analysis was also conducted to calculate the probability of change in residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak with per unit change in the population inflow from Wuhan city. RESULTS: The impact of population inflow from Wuhan city on residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities was positive and significant at the 1% level, while that on residents' confidence in controlling COVID-19 at the destination cities was negative and significant at the 1% level. Robustness checks, which included modifying the sample range and replacing measurement indicators of the population inflow from Wuhan city, demonstrated these findings were robust and credible. When the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probabilities of the variables “February” and “March” decreased significantly by 0.1023 and 0.1602, respectively, while the probabilities of “April,” “May,” “June,” “July,” “before the end of 2020,” and “unknown” significantly increased by 0.0470, 0.0856, 0.0333, 0.0080, 0.0046, and 0.0840, respectively. Similarly, when the population inflow from Wuhan city increased by one additional unit, the probability of the variable “extremely confident” decreased by 0.1973. Furthermore, the probabilities of the variables “confident,” “neutral,” and “unconfident” significantly increased by 0.1392, 0.0224, and 0.0320, respectively. CONCLUSION: The population inflow from Wuhan city played a negative role in the sense of confidence of residents in controlling COVID-19 in the destination cities. The higher the population inflow from Wuhan city, the longer the residents' expected month for controlling COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities became, and the weaker the residents' confidence in controlling the COVID-19 outbreak at the destination cities.