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Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition

Current estimates of terrestrial bird losses across Europe from ingestion of lead ammunition are based on uncertain or generic assumptions. A method is needed to develop defensible European-specific estimates compatible with available data that does not require long-term field studies. We propose a...

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Autores principales: Meyer, Carolyn B., Walker, Timothy A., Francisco, Alex B., Morrison, Emily B., Meyer, Joseph S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9423653/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037158
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273572
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author Meyer, Carolyn B.
Walker, Timothy A.
Francisco, Alex B.
Morrison, Emily B.
Meyer, Joseph S.
author_facet Meyer, Carolyn B.
Walker, Timothy A.
Francisco, Alex B.
Morrison, Emily B.
Meyer, Joseph S.
author_sort Meyer, Carolyn B.
collection PubMed
description Current estimates of terrestrial bird losses across Europe from ingestion of lead ammunition are based on uncertain or generic assumptions. A method is needed to develop defensible European-specific estimates compatible with available data that does not require long-term field studies. We propose a 2-step method using carcass data and population models. The method estimates percentage of deaths diagnosed as directly caused by lead poisoning as a lower bound and, as an upper bound, the percentage of possible deaths from sublethal lead poisoning that weakens birds, making them susceptible to death by other causes. We use these estimates to modify known population-level annual mortality. Our method also allows for potential reductions in reproduction from lead shot ingestion because reductions in survival and reproduction are entered into population models of species with life histories representative of the most groups of susceptible species. The models estimate the sustainability and potential population decreases from lead poisoning in Europe. Using the best available data, we demonstrate the method on two taxonomic groups of birds: gallinaceous birds and diurnal raptors. The direction of the population trends affects the estimate, and we incorporated such trends into the method. Our midpoint estimates of the reduction in population size of the European gallinaceous bird (< 2%) group and raptor group (2.9–7.7%) depend on the species life history, maximum growth rate, population trend, and if reproduction is assumed to be reduced. Our estimates can be refined as more information becomes available in countries with data gaps. We advocate use of this method to improve upon or supplement approaches currently being used. As we demonstrate, the method also can be applied to individual species of concern if enough data across countries are available.
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spelling pubmed-94236532022-08-30 Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition Meyer, Carolyn B. Walker, Timothy A. Francisco, Alex B. Morrison, Emily B. Meyer, Joseph S. PLoS One Research Article Current estimates of terrestrial bird losses across Europe from ingestion of lead ammunition are based on uncertain or generic assumptions. A method is needed to develop defensible European-specific estimates compatible with available data that does not require long-term field studies. We propose a 2-step method using carcass data and population models. The method estimates percentage of deaths diagnosed as directly caused by lead poisoning as a lower bound and, as an upper bound, the percentage of possible deaths from sublethal lead poisoning that weakens birds, making them susceptible to death by other causes. We use these estimates to modify known population-level annual mortality. Our method also allows for potential reductions in reproduction from lead shot ingestion because reductions in survival and reproduction are entered into population models of species with life histories representative of the most groups of susceptible species. The models estimate the sustainability and potential population decreases from lead poisoning in Europe. Using the best available data, we demonstrate the method on two taxonomic groups of birds: gallinaceous birds and diurnal raptors. The direction of the population trends affects the estimate, and we incorporated such trends into the method. Our midpoint estimates of the reduction in population size of the European gallinaceous bird (< 2%) group and raptor group (2.9–7.7%) depend on the species life history, maximum growth rate, population trend, and if reproduction is assumed to be reduced. Our estimates can be refined as more information becomes available in countries with data gaps. We advocate use of this method to improve upon or supplement approaches currently being used. As we demonstrate, the method also can be applied to individual species of concern if enough data across countries are available. Public Library of Science 2022-08-29 /pmc/articles/PMC9423653/ /pubmed/36037158 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273572 Text en © 2022 Meyer et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Meyer, Carolyn B.
Walker, Timothy A.
Francisco, Alex B.
Morrison, Emily B.
Meyer, Joseph S.
Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title_full Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title_fullStr Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title_full_unstemmed Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title_short Method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial European avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
title_sort method to assess the potential magnitude of terrestrial european avian population reductions from ingestion of lead ammunition
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9423653/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36037158
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273572
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