Long-term sick leave for back pain, exposure to physical workload and psychosocial factors at work, and risk of disability and early-age retirement among aged Swedish workers

PURPOSE: To assess the risk of disability and early-age retirement associated with previous long-term sickness absence for back pain (back-pain SA), exposure to high physical workload, low job control, high demands and high strain, and to evaluate effect modification by work factors on the relationship between back-pain SA and premature retirement. METHODS: All employed Swedish residents born 1946–1955 (n = 835,956) were followed up from 2010 to 2016 for disability (DP) and early-age pension (EAP). Associations of premature retirement with exposure to work factors and back-pain SA in the 3 years before follow-up were estimated through proportional hazards models. Retirement, back-pain SA and covariates were assessed through administrative sources, and exposure to work factors through a job-exposure matrix. RESULTS: In both genders, back-pain SA was associated with DP (> 1 episode: HR 3.23 among men; HR 3.12 among women) and EAP (> 1 episode: HR 1.24 among men; HR 1.18 among women). Higher physical workload and lower job control were also associated with an increased DP risk in both genders, whereas higher job demands showed a decreased risk. For EAP, associations with work factors were weak and inconsistent across genders. No effect modification by work factors was found, except for a negative effect modification by job strain on DP risk among women, i.e. a reduced effect of back-pain SA with increasing exposure. CONCLUSION: Back-pain SA was a significant predictor of both DP and EAP, while work factors were consistently associated only with DP. Our results indicate that the joint effect of back-pain SA and work factors on DP is additive and does not support effect modification by work factors. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00420-022-01862-8.