Association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and risk of incident heart failure: a meta-analysis of observational studies

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Recent research has associated non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with an increased risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. Previous studies that evaluated the association between NAFLD and risk of heart failure (HF) yielded inconsistent results, however. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the association between NAFLD and the risk of HF. METHODS: We searched multiple electronic databases, including PubMed, Google Scholar, Embase and Web of Science for potential studies published from inception until 30 October 2021. Cohort studies reported multivariable-adjusted risks of incident HF in NAFLD patients comparing those without NAFLD were included. RESULTS: Six cohort studies comprising 10,979,967 participants (women = 55.5%) were included in the study. The median prevalence of NAFLD in these studies was 22.2%. During a median follow-up duration of 7.0 years, 92,915 HF cases were detected. In the unadjusted model, patients with NAFLD had a greater risk of incident HF [random-effect hazard ratio (HR) = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.25–1.75, I(2) = 99%], compared with those without NAFLD. After multivariable adjustment of confounding risk factors, NAFLD was still linked with a higher risk of HF incidence (random-effect HR = 1.36, 95% CI = 1.16–1.58, I(2) = 98%). The risk of HF was increased not only in patients with progressive NAFLD severity but also in those with simple steatosis. The absolute risk difference of HF in NAFLD patients compared with those without NAFLD was 11.0 (95% CI = 4.9–17.7) per 10,000 person-years after multivariable adjustment. CONCLUSION: This meta-analysis suggests that NAFLD may be associated with an increased risk of incident HF. Owing to the high heterogeneity of the published studies, however, further high-quality studies are still needed.