Developmental trajectories of tobacco use and risk factors from adolescence to emerging young adulthood: a population-based panel study

BACKGROUND: Adolescence to young adulthood is a critical developmental period that determines lifelong patterns of tobacco use. We examined the longitudinal trajectories of tobacco use, and risk factors for its use, and explored the association between the trajectories of mobile phone dependency and smoking throughout the life-course among adolescents and young adults. METHODS: Data of 1,723 subjects (853 boys and 870 girls) were obtained from six waves of the Korean Children and Youth Panel Survey (mean age = 13.9–19.9 years). To identify trajectories of smoking and mobile phone dependency, group-based trajectory modelling (GBTM) was conducted. A multinomial logistic regression analysis was performed to identify the characteristics of the trajectory groups. RESULTS: GBTM identified four distinct smoking trajectories: never smokers (69.1%), persistent light smokers (8.7%), early established smokers (12.0%), and late escalators (10.3%). Successful school adjustment decreased the risk of being an early established smoker (odds ratio [OR] 0.46, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.27–0.78). The number of days not supervised by a guardian after school was positively associated with the risk of being an early established smoker (OR 1.96, 95% CI 1.23–3.13). Dependency on mobile phones throughout the life-course was positively associated with the risk of being a persistent light smoker (OR 4.04, 95% CI 1.32–12.34) or early established smoker (OR 8.18, 95% CI 4.04–16.56). CONCLUSIONS: Based on the group-based modeling approach, we identified four distinctive smoking trajectories and highlight the long-term effects of mobile phone dependency, from early adolescence to young adulthood, on smoking patterns. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14070-3.