Lipid-Based Factors: A Promising New Biomarker for Predicting Prognosis and Conditional Survival Probability in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

PURPOSE: Abnormalities in lipid metabolism play a vital role in the development of cancer. This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the survival prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in terms of (free fatty acid: high-density lipoproteins) ratio (FF-HL) and to compare it with conditional probability and annual death hazard. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Patients (n=300) were enrolled. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to determine the predictive ability of survival. Survival probabilities were estimated using the Kaplan–Meier method and Log rank tests were performed for statistical significance. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for FF-HL, which predicts overall survival (OS), was superior to other markers. Patients in the high FF-HL (>840.3) showed poorer OS and progress-free survival (PFS). In multivariable analysis, FF-HL was an independent marker in predicting OS. Younger people and those with intrahepatic metastasis in higher FF-HL groups, as well as older men without vascular invasion in higher AHLR groups showed shorter OS and PFS. 3-year conditional disease-free survival (CDFS(3)) was slightly higher than those with actuarial survival. The death risk for 3-year conditional OS (COS(3)) was stable in the group with low FF-HL and (albumin: high-density lipoproteins) ratio (AHLR) and more pronounced in high subgroups. However, risk stratification using the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer approach and Child-Pugh score might not accurately predict COS(3). CONCLUSION: FF-HL and AHLR are not only promising biomarkers in terms of predictive ability of OS and PFS but also provide time-dependent prognostic information for HCC patients.