Prediction of Visual Outcomes After Diabetic Vitrectomy Using Clinical Factors From Common Data Warehouse

PURPOSE: We sought to analyze the visual outcome and systemic prognostic factors for diabetic vitrectomy and predicted outcomes using these factors. METHODS: This was a multicenter electronic medical records (EMRs) review study of 1504 eyes with type 2 diabetes that underwent vitrectomy for proliferative diabetic retinopathy at 6 university hospitals. Demographics, laboratory results, intra-operative findings, and visual acuity (VA) values were analyzed and correlated with visual outcomes at 1 year after the vitrectomy. Prediction models for visual outcomes were obtained using machine learning. RESULTS: At 1 year, VA was 1.0 logarithm of minimal angle resolution (logMAR) or greater (poor visual outcome group) in 456 eyes (30%). Baseline visual acuity, duration of diabetes treatment, tractional membrane, silicone oil tamponade, smoking, and vitreous hemorrhage correlated with logMAR VA at 1 year (r = 0.450, −0.159, 0.221, 0.280, 0.067, and −0.105; all P ≤ 0.036). An ensemble decision tree model trained using all variables generated accuracy, specificity, F1 score (the harmonic means of which precision and sensitivity), and receiver-operating characteristic curve area under curve values of 0.77, 0.66, 0.85, and 0.84 for the prediction of poor visual outcomes at 1 year after vitrectomy. CONCLUSIONS: Visual outcome after diabetic vitrectomy is associated with pre- and intra-operative findings and systemic factors. Poor visual outcome after diabetic vitrectomy was predictable using clinical factors. Intensive care in patients who are predicted to result in poor vision may limit vision loss resulting from type 2 diabetes. TRANSLATIONAL RELEVANCE: This study demonstrates that a real world EMR big data could predict outcome after diabetic vitrectomy using clinical factors.