Prediction model of early biomarkers of massive cerebral infarction caused by anterior circulation occlusion: Establishment and evaluation

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study is to establish and evaluate an early biomarker prediction model of massive cerebral infarction caused by anterior circulation occlusion. METHODS: One hundred thirty-four patients with acute cerebral infarction from January 2018 to October 2020 were selected to establish the development cohort for the internal test of the nomogram. Ninety-one patients with acute cerebral infarction hospitalized in our hospital from December 2020 to December 2021 were constituted the validation cohort for the external validation. All patients underwent baseline computed tomography (CT) scans within 12 h of onset and early imaging signs (hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, obscuration of the lentiform nucleus, insular ribbon sign) of acute cerebral infarction were identified on CT by two neurologists. Based on follow-up CT images, patients were then divided into a massive cerebral infarction group and a non-massive cerebral infarction group. The nomogram model was constructed based on logistic regression analysis with R language. The nomogram was subsequently validated in an independent external validation cohort. Accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model were evaluated by a calibration chart, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve. RESULTS: The indicators, including insular ribbon sign, reperfusion therapy, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NHISS) score, previous cerebral infarction, and atrial fibrillation, were entered into the prediction model through binary logistic regression analysis. The prediction model showed good predictive ability. The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model was 0.848. The specificity, sensitivity, and Youden index were 0.864, 0.733, and 0.597, respectively. This nomogram to the validation cohort also showed good discrimination (AUC = 0.940, 95% CI 0.894–0.985) and calibration. CONCLUSION: Demonstrating favorable predictive efficacy and reproducibility, this study successfully established a prediction model of CT imaging signs and clinical data as early biomarkers of massive cerebral infarction caused by anterior circulation occlusion.