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Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak

In a long-lasting major disease outbreak such as that of COVID-19, the challenge for public health authorities is to keep people motivated and keen on following safety guidelines. In this study, a compartmental model with a heterogeneous transmission rate (based on awareness) is utilized to hypothes...

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Autores principales: Abbas, Wasim, M. A., Masud, Park, Anna, Parveen, Sajida, Kim, Sangil
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9436131/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36048847
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273964
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author Abbas, Wasim
M. A., Masud
Park, Anna
Parveen, Sajida
Kim, Sangil
author_facet Abbas, Wasim
M. A., Masud
Park, Anna
Parveen, Sajida
Kim, Sangil
author_sort Abbas, Wasim
collection PubMed
description In a long-lasting major disease outbreak such as that of COVID-19, the challenge for public health authorities is to keep people motivated and keen on following safety guidelines. In this study, a compartmental model with a heterogeneous transmission rate (based on awareness) is utilized to hypothesize about the public adoption of preventive guidelines. Three subsequent outbreaks in South Korea, Pakistan, and Japan were analyzed as case studies. The transmission, behavior change, and behavioral change ease rates of the disease were measured in these countries. The parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with an additional identifiability analysis performed to determine the uniqueness of the estimated parameters for quantitatively comparing them during the first three waves of COVID-19. The mathematical analysis and simulation results show that individual responses had a significant effect on the outbreak. Individuals declining to follow the public health guidelines in Korea and Japan between the second and third waves contributed to making the third peak the highest of the three peaks. In Pakistan, however, individual responses to following public health guidelines were maintained between the second and third waves, resulting in the third peak being lower than the first, rather than being associated with the highest transmission rate. Thus, maintaining a high level of awareness is critical for containing the spread. Improvised public health campaigns are recommended to sustain individual attention and maintain a high level of awareness.
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spelling pubmed-94361312022-09-02 Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak Abbas, Wasim M. A., Masud Park, Anna Parveen, Sajida Kim, Sangil PLoS One Research Article In a long-lasting major disease outbreak such as that of COVID-19, the challenge for public health authorities is to keep people motivated and keen on following safety guidelines. In this study, a compartmental model with a heterogeneous transmission rate (based on awareness) is utilized to hypothesize about the public adoption of preventive guidelines. Three subsequent outbreaks in South Korea, Pakistan, and Japan were analyzed as case studies. The transmission, behavior change, and behavioral change ease rates of the disease were measured in these countries. The parameters were estimated using the maximum likelihood method with an additional identifiability analysis performed to determine the uniqueness of the estimated parameters for quantitatively comparing them during the first three waves of COVID-19. The mathematical analysis and simulation results show that individual responses had a significant effect on the outbreak. Individuals declining to follow the public health guidelines in Korea and Japan between the second and third waves contributed to making the third peak the highest of the three peaks. In Pakistan, however, individual responses to following public health guidelines were maintained between the second and third waves, resulting in the third peak being lower than the first, rather than being associated with the highest transmission rate. Thus, maintaining a high level of awareness is critical for containing the spread. Improvised public health campaigns are recommended to sustain individual attention and maintain a high level of awareness. Public Library of Science 2022-09-01 /pmc/articles/PMC9436131/ /pubmed/36048847 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273964 Text en © 2022 Abbas et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Abbas, Wasim
M. A., Masud
Park, Anna
Parveen, Sajida
Kim, Sangil
Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title_full Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title_fullStr Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title_full_unstemmed Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title_short Evolution and consequences of individual responses during the COVID-19 outbreak
title_sort evolution and consequences of individual responses during the covid-19 outbreak
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9436131/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36048847
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0273964
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