Close encounters during a pandemic: Social habits and inter-generational links in the first two waves of COVID-19()

Social habits are ingrained in a community and affect human behaviour. Have they played any role in the spread of the pandemic? We use high-frequency data for 220 regions in 15 European countries from March to December 2020 to compare the association between social contacts outside the family and within inter-generational families, on the one hand, and cases and excess mortality on the other. We find that a standard deviation increase in the percentage of people having daily face-to-face contacts outside the household is associated with 5 new daily cases and 2.6 additional weekly deaths, while the incidence of inter-generational households exhibits a less robust association with both COVID-19 transmission and mortality. We compare results across the first and the second wave of pandemic and show that differences are related to the average age of the most affected groups. Our findings are robust to the inclusion of a number of controls, fixed effects, the chosen sample of countries, and the estimation method. We argue that type and frequency of social interactions are interweaved with a region culture and habits and are informative on the potential transmission of contagion and on its lethality.