Mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA post Hurricane Maria: an interrupted time series analysis

OBJECTIVES: To determine death occurrences of Puerto Ricans on the mainland USA following the arrival of Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico in September 2017. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. PARTICIPANTS: Persons of Puerto Rican origin on the mainland USA. EXPOSURES: Hurricane Maria. MAIN OUTCOME: We use an interrupted time series design to analyse all-cause mortality of Puerto Ricans in the USA following the hurricane. Hispanic origin data from the National Vital Statistics System and from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the American Community Survey are used to estimate monthly origin-specific mortality rates for the period 2012–2018. We estimated log-linear regressions of monthly deaths of persons of Puerto Rican origin by age group, gender, and educational attainment. RESULTS: We found an increase in mortality for persons of Puerto Rican origin during the 6-month period following the hurricane (October 2017 through March 2018), suggesting that deaths among these persons were 3.7% (95% CI 0.025 to 0.049) higher than would have otherwise been expected. In absolute terms, we estimated 514 excess deaths (95% CI 346 to 681) of persons of Puerto Rican origin that occurred on the mainland USA, concentrated in those aged 65 years or older. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest an undercounting of previous deaths as a result of the hurricane due to the systematic effects on the displaced and resident populations in the mainland USA. Displaced populations are frequently overlooked in disaster relief and subsequent research. Ignoring these populations provides an incomplete understanding of the damages and loss of life.