Optimization of United States Residential Real Estate Investment through Geospatial Analysis and Market Timing

In this study, we examined the long-term spatial patterns and trends of home values within the United States from 1996 to 2019. The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) data were obtained from the Zillow’s housing data portal. The overall trends indicated both coasts of the United States having the highest concentration of hotspots. The ideal time to sell varied seasonally across the country. We used geo-statistical analysis techniques, such as cluster analysis and emerging hot spot analysis (EHSA), to reveal the average and long-term trends in spatial patterns of home values. Washington was the only state with sporadic hot spots. The Western United States showed consecutive hotspots, most notably in California, but in surrounding states as well. The Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Florida were dominated by oscillating hotspots. Texas and the Southeast display new hotspots that signal change, indicative of southward migration of population. Finally, the Midwest has been a historical cold spot, but Cleveland has improved to a diminishing cold spot, pointing to the revitalization of the region. The seasonal level analysis displayed southern and coastal states as those benefiting most from winter home sales, and the colder northern states captured the most value and sold quicker in the summer months. This intuitive analysis of the country’s variation in ideal sale month reveals a local view of when to sell rather than a generalized view of the entire United States.