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A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network

Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autor principal: Dai, Chenglin
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer London 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9440643/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093120
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5
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author Dai, Chenglin
author_facet Dai, Chenglin
author_sort Dai, Chenglin
collection PubMed
description Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to predict the export volume of foreign trade through a back-propagation neural network (BPNN). To shed light on the characteristics of foreign trade and the export volume calculation method, this paper uses BPNN for forecasting. This method has a unique and advanced advantage in solving nonlinear problems and is very suitable for solving forecasting and decision-making problems related to nonlinear financial systems. By establishing multifactor and single-factor export forecasting models, the export volume of a single Chinese city in recent years is forecasted and compared with the actual export volume. The forecasting accuracy of our model is more than 30% higher than that of the traditional forecasting method, and the application is also approximately 15% more accurate than the traditional method, indicating that the method used in this paper is more in line with the growth trend of the actual export data. As a key part of the economic system, foreign trade is an important force driving economic growth. Therefore, developing foreign trade is a suitable path to pursue growth.
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spelling pubmed-94406432022-09-06 A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network Dai, Chenglin Neural Comput Appl S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to predict the export volume of foreign trade through a back-propagation neural network (BPNN). To shed light on the characteristics of foreign trade and the export volume calculation method, this paper uses BPNN for forecasting. This method has a unique and advanced advantage in solving nonlinear problems and is very suitable for solving forecasting and decision-making problems related to nonlinear financial systems. By establishing multifactor and single-factor export forecasting models, the export volume of a single Chinese city in recent years is forecasted and compared with the actual export volume. The forecasting accuracy of our model is more than 30% higher than that of the traditional forecasting method, and the application is also approximately 15% more accurate than the traditional method, indicating that the method used in this paper is more in line with the growth trend of the actual export data. As a key part of the economic system, foreign trade is an important force driving economic growth. Therefore, developing foreign trade is a suitable path to pursue growth. Springer London 2022-09-03 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9440643/ /pubmed/36093120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems
Dai, Chenglin
A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title_full A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title_fullStr A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title_full_unstemmed A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title_short A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
title_sort method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
topic S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9440643/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093120
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5
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