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A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network
Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Springer London
2022
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9440643/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5 |
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author | Dai, Chenglin |
author_facet | Dai, Chenglin |
author_sort | Dai, Chenglin |
collection | PubMed |
description | Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to predict the export volume of foreign trade through a back-propagation neural network (BPNN). To shed light on the characteristics of foreign trade and the export volume calculation method, this paper uses BPNN for forecasting. This method has a unique and advanced advantage in solving nonlinear problems and is very suitable for solving forecasting and decision-making problems related to nonlinear financial systems. By establishing multifactor and single-factor export forecasting models, the export volume of a single Chinese city in recent years is forecasted and compared with the actual export volume. The forecasting accuracy of our model is more than 30% higher than that of the traditional forecasting method, and the application is also approximately 15% more accurate than the traditional method, indicating that the method used in this paper is more in line with the growth trend of the actual export data. As a key part of the economic system, foreign trade is an important force driving economic growth. Therefore, developing foreign trade is a suitable path to pursue growth. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9440643 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Springer London |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-94406432022-09-06 A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network Dai, Chenglin Neural Comput Appl S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems Financial forecasting has been greatly improved in recent years, but at long horizons, forecast accuracy may be low. Foreign trade plays an important role in introducing advanced technology and equipment, expanding employment opportunities, increasing government revenue and promoting economic growth. The main purpose of this paper is to predict the export volume of foreign trade through a back-propagation neural network (BPNN). To shed light on the characteristics of foreign trade and the export volume calculation method, this paper uses BPNN for forecasting. This method has a unique and advanced advantage in solving nonlinear problems and is very suitable for solving forecasting and decision-making problems related to nonlinear financial systems. By establishing multifactor and single-factor export forecasting models, the export volume of a single Chinese city in recent years is forecasted and compared with the actual export volume. The forecasting accuracy of our model is more than 30% higher than that of the traditional forecasting method, and the application is also approximately 15% more accurate than the traditional method, indicating that the method used in this paper is more in line with the growth trend of the actual export data. As a key part of the economic system, foreign trade is an important force driving economic growth. Therefore, developing foreign trade is a suitable path to pursue growth. Springer London 2022-09-03 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC9440643/ /pubmed/36093120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag London Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2022, Springer Nature or its licensor holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
spellingShingle | S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems Dai, Chenglin A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title | A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title_full | A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title_fullStr | A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title_full_unstemmed | A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title_short | A method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
title_sort | method of forecasting trade export volume based on back-propagation neural network |
topic | S.I.: AI based Techniques and Applications for Intelligent IoT Systems |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9440643/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093120 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00521-022-07693-5 |
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