Identification of a glycolysis- and lactate-related gene signature for predicting prognosis, immune microenvironment, and drug candidates in colon adenocarcinoma

Background: Colon adenocarcinoma (COAD), a malignant gastrointestinal tumor, has the characteristics of high mortality and poor prognosis. Even in the presence of oxygen, the Warburg effect, a major metabolic hallmark of almost all cancer cells, is characterized by increased glycolysis and lactate fermentation, which supports biosynthesis and provides energy to sustain tumor cell growth and proliferation. However, a thorough investigation into glycolysis- and lactate-related genes and their association with COAD prognosis, immune cell infiltration, and drug candidates is currently lacking. Methods: COAD patient data and glycolysis- and lactate-related genes were retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (GSEA) databases, respectively. After univariate Cox regression analysis, a nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF) algorithm was used to identify glycolysis- and lactate-related molecular subtypes. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression identified twelve glycolysis- and lactate-related genes (ADTRP, ALDOB, APOBEC1, ASCL2, CEACAM7, CLCA1, CTXN1, FLNA, NAT2, OLFM4, PTPRU, and SNCG) related to prognosis. The median risk score was employed to separate patients into high- and low-risk groups. The prognostic efficacy of the glycolysis- and lactate-related gene signature was assessed using Kaplan–Meier (KM) survival and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses. The nomogram, calibration curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and clinical impact curve (CIC) were employed to improve the clinical applicability of the prognostic signature. Gene Ontology (GO) and Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes (KEGG) pathway enrichment analyses were performed on differentially expressed genes (DEGs) from the high- and low-risk groups. Using CIBERSORT, ESTIMATE, and single-sample GSEA (ssGSEA) algorithms, the quantities and types of tumor-infiltrating immune cells were assessed. The tumor mutational burden (TMB) and cytolytic (CYT) activity scores were calculated between the high- and low-risk groups. Potential small-molecule agents were identified using the Connectivity Map (cMap) database and validated by molecular docking. To verify key core gene expression levels, quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qRT–PCR) assays were conducted. Results: We identified four distinct molecular subtypes of COAD. Cluster 2 had the best prognosis, and clusters 1 and 3 had poor prognoses. High-risk COAD patients exhibited considerably poorer overall survival (OS) than low-risk COAD patients. The nomogram precisely predicted patient OS, with acceptable discrimination and excellent calibration. GO and KEGG pathway enrichment analyses of DEGs revealed enrichment mainly in the “glycosaminoglycan binding,” “extracellular matrix,” “pancreatic secretion,” and “focal adhesion” pathways. Patients in the low-risk group exhibited a larger infiltration of memory CD4+ T cells and dendritic cells and a better prognosis than those in the high-risk group. The chemotherapeutic agent sensitivity of patients categorized by risk score varied significantly. We predicted six potential small-molecule agents binding to the core target of the glycolysis- and lactate-related gene signature. ALDOB and APOBEC1 mRNA expression was increased in COAD tissues, whereas CLCA1 and OLFM4 mRNA expression was increased in normal tissues. Conclusion: In summary, we identified molecular subtypes of COAD and developed a glycolysis- and lactate-related gene signature with significant prognostic value, which benefits COAD patients by informing more precise and effective treatment decisions.