A CT-based nomogram for predicting the risk of adenocarcinomas in patients with subsolid nodule according to the 2021 WHO classification

PURPOSE: To establish a nomogram for predicting the risk of adenocarcinomas in patients with subsolid nodules (SSNs) according to the 2021 WHO classification. METHODS: A total of 656 patients who underwent SSNs resection were retrospectively enrolled. Among them, 407 patients were assigned to the derivation cohort and 249 patients were assigned to the validation cohort. Univariate and multi-variate logistic regression algorithms were utilized to identity independent risk factors of adenocarcinomas. A nomogram based on the risk factors was generated to predict the risk of adenocarcinomas. The discrimination ability of the nomogram was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), its performance was calibrated using a calibration curve, and its clinical significance was evaluated using decision curves and clinical impact curves. RESULTS: Lesion size, mean CT value, vascular change and lobulation were identified as independent risk factors for adenocarcinomas. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.867 (95% CI, 0.833-0.901) in derivation cohort and 0.877 (95% CI, 0.836-0.917) in validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the predicted and actual risks. Analysis of the decision curves and clinical impact curves revealed that the nomogram had a high standardized net benefit. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram for predicting the risk of adenocarcinomas in patients with SSNs was established in light of the 2021 WHO classification. The developed model can be adopted as a pre-operation tool to improve the surgical management of patients. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40644-022-00483-1.