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An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic

After the outbreak of COVID-19, the freight demand fell briefly, and as production resumed, the trucking share rate increased again, further increasing energy consumption and environmental pollution. To optimize the sudden changing freight structure, the study aims on developing an evolution model b...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Lu, Changxiang, Ye, Yong, Fang, Yongjun, Fang, Jiaqi
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Ltd. 2023
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9446572/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093279
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101430
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author Lu, Changxiang
Ye, Yong
Fang, Yongjun
Fang, Jiaqi
author_facet Lu, Changxiang
Ye, Yong
Fang, Yongjun
Fang, Jiaqi
author_sort Lu, Changxiang
collection PubMed
description After the outbreak of COVID-19, the freight demand fell briefly, and as production resumed, the trucking share rate increased again, further increasing energy consumption and environmental pollution. To optimize the sudden changing freight structure, the study aims on developing an evolution model based on Markov's theory to estimate the freight structure post-COVID-19. The current study applies economic cybernetics to establish a freight structural adjustment path optimization model and solve the problem of how much freight transportation should increase each year under the premise that the total turnover of the freight industry continues to grow, and how many years it will take at least to reach a reasonable freight structure. The freight transport structure of China is used to examine the feasibility of the proposed model. The finding indicates that the development of China's freight transport structure is at an adjustment period and should enter a stable period by 2035 and the COVID-19 makes it harder to adjust the freight structure. Increasing the growth rate of the freight volume of railway and waterway transportation is the key to realizing the optimization of the freight structure, and the freight structure path optimization method can realize the rationalization of the freight structure in advance.
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spelling pubmed-94465722022-09-06 An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic Lu, Changxiang Ye, Yong Fang, Yongjun Fang, Jiaqi Socioecon Plann Sci Article After the outbreak of COVID-19, the freight demand fell briefly, and as production resumed, the trucking share rate increased again, further increasing energy consumption and environmental pollution. To optimize the sudden changing freight structure, the study aims on developing an evolution model based on Markov's theory to estimate the freight structure post-COVID-19. The current study applies economic cybernetics to establish a freight structural adjustment path optimization model and solve the problem of how much freight transportation should increase each year under the premise that the total turnover of the freight industry continues to grow, and how many years it will take at least to reach a reasonable freight structure. The freight transport structure of China is used to examine the feasibility of the proposed model. The finding indicates that the development of China's freight transport structure is at an adjustment period and should enter a stable period by 2035 and the COVID-19 makes it harder to adjust the freight structure. Increasing the growth rate of the freight volume of railway and waterway transportation is the key to realizing the optimization of the freight structure, and the freight structure path optimization method can realize the rationalization of the freight structure in advance. Elsevier Ltd. 2023-02 2022-09-06 /pmc/articles/PMC9446572/ /pubmed/36093279 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101430 Text en © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Lu, Changxiang
Ye, Yong
Fang, Yongjun
Fang, Jiaqi
An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title_full An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title_fullStr An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title_short An optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-COVID-19 pandemic
title_sort optimal control theory approach for freight structure path evolution post-covid-19 pandemic
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9446572/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36093279
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.seps.2022.101430
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