Are mega-events super spreaders of infectious diseases similar to COVID-19? A look into Tokyo 2020 Olympics and Paralympics to improve preparedness of next international events

Tokyo Summer Olympics and Paralympics have raised social issues regarding the potential rise in COVID-19 cases in Japan and risks associated with the safe organization of mega sporting events during the pandemic, such as the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022. This study investigates the Tokyo Summer Olympics as a unique case study to clarify the drivers of infectivity and provide guidelines to host countries for the safe organization of subsequent international sporting events. The result here reveals that Tokyo and Japan did not experience a rise in confirmed cases of COVID-19 due to the hosting of the Summer Olympics. Still, transmission dynamics seems to be mainly driven by the high density of population (about 1.2%, p-value <0.001) like other larger cities in Japan (result confirmed with Mann-Whitney U test, significance at 0.05). Our study provided evidence that hosting mega sporting events during this COVID-19 pandemic is safe if strictly maintained the precautions with non-pharmaceutical (and pharmaceutical) measures of control of infections. The Tokyo Summer Olympics hosting will be exemplary for next international events due to the successful implementation of preventive measures during COVID-19 pandemic crisis. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11356-022-22660-2.