Development, validation and comparison of multivariable risk scores for prediction of total stroke and stroke types in Chinese adults: a prospective study of 0.5 million adults

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Low-income and middle-income countries have the greatest stroke burden, yet remain understudied. This study compared the utility of Framingham versus novel risk scores for prediction of total stroke and stroke types in Chinese adults. METHODS: China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) is a prospective study of 512 726 adults, aged 30–79 years, recruited from 10 areas in China in 2004–2008. By 1 January 2018, 43 234 incident first stroke cases (36 310 ischaemic stroke (IS); 8865 haemorrhagic stroke (HS)) were recorded in 503 842 participants with no history of stroke at baseline. We compared the predictive utility of the Framingham Stroke Risk Profile (FSRP) with novel CKB stroke risk scores and included recalibration, refitting, stratifying by study area and addition of other risk factors. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and calibration was assessed using Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino χ(2) statistics. RESULTS: Incidence of total stroke varied fivefold by area in China. The FSRP had good discrimination for total stroke (AUC (95% CI); men: 0.78 (0.77 to 0.79), women: 0.77 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.78)), but poor calibration (χ(2); men: 1,825, women: 3,053), substantially underestimating absolute risks. Recalibration reduced χ(2) by >80%, but did not improve discrimination. Refitting the FSRP did not materially improve discrimination, but further improved calibration. Stratification by area improved discrimination (AUC; men: 0.82 (0.82 to 0.83); women: 0.82 (0.82 to 0.83)), but not calibration. Adding other risk factors yielded modest, but statistically significant, improvements in the AUCs. The findings for IS and HS were similar to those for total stroke. CONCLUSIONS: The FSRP reliably differentiated Chinese adults with incident stroke, but substantially underestimated the absolute risks of stroke. Novel local risk prediction equations that took account of differences in stroke incidence within China enhanced risk prediction of total stroke and major stroke pathological types.