An Integrative Clinical Model for the Prediction of Pathological Complete Response in Patients with Operable Stage II and Stage III Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Receiving Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) is widely used to treat stage II and III primary, operable triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). The response to NAC critically affects the subsequent treatment plan, including not only curative surgical planning but also adjuvant therapy. There is no standard prediction model that accurately predicts NAC response. Therefore, the development of an easy-to-apply and cost-effective clinical prediction model for NAC treatment response would improve clinical practice. We propose an integrative clinical prediction model for the prediction of pathologically complete response in patients with operable stage II and stage III TNBC receiving NAC based on findings from tumor ultrasound and blood tests. All included parameters were readily available during and before NAC. This clinical prediction model could provide a reference to guide clinicians’ decisions in planning a patient’s NAC treatment as early as after the first cycle of NAC. ABSTRACT: Triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) is treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC). The response to NAC, particularly the probability of a complete pathological response (pCR), guides the surgical approach and adjuvant therapy. We developed a prediction model using a nomogram integrating blood tests and pre-treatment ultrasound findings for predicting pCR in patients with stage II or III operable TNBC receiving NAC. Clinical data before and after the first cycle of NAC collected from patients between 2012 and 2019 were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses to identify correlations with pCR. The coefficients of the significant parameters were calculated using logistic regression, and a nomogram was developed based on the logistic model to predict the probability of pCR. Eighty-eight patients were included. Five parameters correlated with the probability of pCR, including the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR) ratio, percentage change in PLR, presence of echogenic halo, and tumor height-to-width ratio. The discrimination performance of the nomogram was indicated by an area under the curve of 87.7%, and internal validation showed that the chi-square value of the Hosmer–Lemeshow test was 7.67 (p = 0.363). Thus, the integrative prediction model using clinical data can predict the probability of pCR in patients with TNBC receiving NAC.