Dynamic Impacts of External Uncertainties on the Stability of the Food Supply Chain: Evidence from China

The food supply chain operates in a complex and dynamic external environment, and the external uncertainties from natural and socio-economic environment pose great challenges to the development of the food industry. In particular, the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia–Ukraine conflict have further exacerbated the vulnerability of the global food supply chain. Analyzing the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on the stability of food supply chain is central to guaranteeing the sustainable security of food supply. Based on the division of food supply chain and the classification of external uncertainties, the TVP-FAVAR-SV model was constructed to explore the dynamic impacts of external uncertainties on food supply chain. It was found that the impacts of external uncertainty elements were significantly different, the combination of different external uncertainty elements aggravated or reduced the risks of food supply chain. And some uncertainty elements had both positive and negative impacts in the whole sample period, as the magnitude and direction of the impacts of various uncertainties in different periods had time-varying characteristics.