A Novel Nomogram for Predicting Prognosis and Tailoring Local Therapy Decision for Ductal Carcinoma In Situ after Breast Conserving Surgery

Purpose: We sought to explore the role of nomogram-combined biomarkers, mammographic microcalcification and inflammatory hematologic markers in guiding local therapy decisions in ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) subgroups with different ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) risk. Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2018, consecutive patients with DCIS and breast conserving surgery (BCS) were enrolled and randomly assigned to a training cohort (n = 181) and internally validation cohort (n = 78). Multivariate analyses were performed to identify predictors of IBTR. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. The time-to-event curves were calculated by the Kaplan–Meier methods and compared by the log-rank test. Results: In total, 259 patients were enrolled and 182 of them received whole breast irradiation (WBI). After a median follow-up of 51.02 months, 23 IBTR events occurred in the whole cohort. By multivariate analyses of training cohort, presence of microinvasion, Ki67 index >14%, mammographic-clustered fine linear microcalcifications and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio before BCS (preop-NLR), >1.1 remained independent risk factors of IBTR to develop a nomogram. The C-indexes of the nomogram were 0.87 and 0.86 in the training and internal validation set, respectively. Calibration plots illustrated good agreement between the predictions and actual observations for 5-year IBTR. Cut-off values of nomogram point were identified as 53 and 115 points, which divided all patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups. Significant differences in IBTR existed between low-, intermediate- and high-risk subgroups (p < 0.01). For the whole cohort and ER-positive tumours, the benefit of WBI was found only in the intermediate-risk subgroup, but not in those with low or high risk. Fourteen out of 23 IBTRs occurred outside the original quadrant and all occurred in the high-risk group. Conclusions: The novel nomogram demonstrated potential to separate the risk of IBTR and locations of IBTR. For the whole cohort and ER-positive tumours, the benefit of WBI was restricted to an intermediate-risk subgroup.