Incidence, prognostic factors and survival in bladder cancer patients: a population-based study

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to investigate the incidence, epidemiologic characteristics, prognostic factors and survival of patients with bladder cancer. METHODS: Bladder cancer patients diagnosed between 2010 and 2015 were identified from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to identify the independent prognostic factors for overall survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and nomogram analysis were constructed based on the identified independent prognostic factors. RESULTS: A total of 95,329 eligible bladder cancer patients were included in this study. Eight independent risk factors, including age, histologic type, race, tumor, node and metastasis (TNM) stage, American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage, surgery, tumor metastasis and summary stage, were recognized by using multivariate logistic regression models. By comprising these factors, a predictive nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-, 3-, and 5-year overall survival possibilities. The concordance index and calibration curve showed that the nomogram had robust and accurate performance. CONCLUSIONS: Bladder cancer is the most common cancer of the urinary system, but the overall incidence has been decreasing yearly since 1992. Our results demonstrate eight factors significantly associated with overall survival in bladder cancer patients. Based on these factors, we established and validated a nomogram, which has the potential to provide an individualized prediction of overall survival in patients with bladder cancer.