Assessing Social Media Data as a Resource for Firearm Research: Analysis of Tweets Pertaining to Firearm Deaths

BACKGROUND: Historic constraints on research dollars and reliable information have limited firearm research. At the same time, interest in the power and potential of social media analytics, particularly in health contexts, has surged. OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study is to contribute toward the goal of establishing a foundation for how social media data may best be used, alone or in conjunction with other data resources, to improve the information base for firearm research. METHODS: We examined the value of social media data for estimating a firearm outcome for which robust benchmark data exist—specifically, firearm mortality, which is captured in the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS). We hand curated tweet data from the Twitter application programming interface spanning January 1, 2017, to December 31, 2018. We developed machine learning classifiers to identify tweets that pertain to firearm deaths and develop estimates of the volume of Twitter firearm discussion by month. We compared within-state variation over time in the volume of tweets pertaining to firearm deaths with within-state trends in NVSS-based estimates of firearm fatalities using Pearson linear correlations. RESULTS: The correlation between the monthly number of firearm fatalities measured by the NVSS and the monthly volume of tweets pertaining to firearm deaths was weak (median 0.081) and highly dispersed across states (range –0.31 to 0.535). The median correlation between month-to-month changes in firearm fatalities in the NVSS and firearm deaths discussed in tweets was moderate (median 0.30) and exhibited less dispersion among states (range –0.06 to 0.69). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that Twitter data may hold value for tracking dynamics in firearm-related outcomes, particularly for relatively populous cities that are identifiable through location mentions in tweet content. The data are likely to be particularly valuable for understanding firearm outcomes not currently measured, not measured well, or not measurable through other available means. This research provides an important building block for future work that continues to develop the usefulness of social media data for firearm research.