Procalcitonin as a predictive marker in COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Coronavirus disease 2019 has emerged as a global pandemic causing millions of critical cases and deaths. Early identification of at-risk patients is crucial for planning triage and treatment strategies. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We performed this systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the pooled prognostic significance of procalcitonin in predicting mortality and severity in patients with COVID-19 using a robust methodology and clear clinical implications. DESIGN: We used Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses and Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions guidelines. We included thirty-two prospective and retrospective cohort studies involving 13,154 patients. RESULTS: The diagnostic odds ratio of procalcitonin for predicting mortality were estimated to be 11 (95% CI: 7 to 17) with sensitivity, specificity, and summary area under the curveof 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70 to 0.91), 0.69 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79), and 0.83 (95% CI: 0.79 to 0.86) respectively. While for identifying severe cases of COVID-19, the odds ratio was 8.0 (95% CI 5.0 to 12.0) with sensitivity, specificity, and summary area under the curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.67 to 0.78), 0.74 (0.66 to 0.81), and 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82) respectively. CONCLUSION: Procalcitonin has good discriminatory power for predicting mortality and disease severity in COVID-19 patients. Therefore, procalcitonin measurement may help identify potentially severe cases and thus decrease mortality by offering early aggressive treatment.