Predictive ability of six obesity measures to identify 7-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Globally, most people die from cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to compare predictive ability of six obesity indices, including body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, conicity index, and abdominal volume index, to identify people at risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, in a cohort study. METHODS: We studied 5147 participants in a baseline population-based cohort study conducted in northern Iran. The obesity measures were calculated in enrollment phase (2009–2010), and the cardiovascular events were recorded during a 7-year follow-up phase (2010–2017). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and Cox hazard regression models were applied, considering the obesity measures as predictors, and the 7-year cardiovascular events as outcomes. Multiple Cox models were adjusted by age, prior history of cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney diseases, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and smoking status. RESULTS: Conicity index showed the highest performance in predicting 7-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events with areas under the ROC curve of 0.77 [95% confidence interval: 0.71–0.82], and 0.63 [0.59–0.68] in men, and 0.80 [0.74–0.87], and 0.65 [0.60–0.71] in women, respectively. In multiple Cox models, the obesity measures had no significant associations with cardiovascular events in women. In men, only waist-to-height ratio was independently associated with 7-year non-fatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio: 1.19 [95% confidence interval: 1.01–1.38]). CONCLUSIONS: Although waist-to-height ratio had an independent association with 7-year non-fatal cardiovascular events in men, conicity index showed the best ability to predict 7-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in our study.