Prognostic value of soluble ST2, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin, and NT-proBNP in type 2 diabetes: a 15-year retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2DM) present an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and excess CV-related mortality. Beyond the established role of brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) and cardiac troponins (cTn), other non-cardiac-specific biomarkers are emerging as predictors of CV outcomes in T2DM. METHODS: Serum levels of soluble suppression of tumorigenesis 2 (sST2), high-sensitivity (hs)-cTnI, and N-terminal (NT)-proBNP were assessed in 568 patients with T2DM and 115 healthy controls (CTR). Their association with all-cause mortality and the development of diabetic complications was tested in T2DM patients over a median follow-up of 16.8 years using Cox models and logistic regressions. RESULTS: sST2 followed an increasing trend from CTR to uncomplicated T2DM patients (T2DM-NC) to patients with at least one complication (T2DM-C), while hs-cTnI was significantly higher in T2DM-C compared to CTR but not to T2DM-NC. A graded association was found between sST2 (HR 2.76 [95% CI 1.20–6.33] for ≥ 32.0 ng/mL and 2.00 [1.02–3.94] for 16.5–32.0 ng/mL compared to < 16.5 ng/mL, C-statistic = 0.729), NT-proBNP (HR 2.04 [1.90–4.55] for ≥ 337 ng/L and 1.48 [1.05–2.10] for 89–337 ng/L compared to < 89 ng/L, C-statistic = 0.741), and 15-year mortality in T2DM, whereas increased mortality was observed in patients with hs-cTnI ≥ 7.8 ng/L (HR 1.63 [1.01–2.62]). A ‘cardiac score’ based on the combination of sST2, hs-cTnI, and NT-proBNP was significantly associated with all-cause mortality (HR 1.35 [1.19–1.53], C-statistic = 0.739) and development of CV events. CONCLUSIONS: sST2, hs-cTnI, and NT-proBNP are associated with 15-year mortality and onset of CV events in T2DM. The long-term prognostic value of sST2 and its ability to track variables related to insulin resistance and associated metabolic disorders support its implementation into routine clinical practice. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01616-3.