Cargando…
Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source...
Autores principales: | , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Oxford University Press
2022
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9465520/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36111270 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159 |
_version_ | 1784787816963637248 |
---|---|
author | Brett, Tobias S Rohani, Pejman |
author_facet | Brett, Tobias S Rohani, Pejman |
author_sort | Brett, Tobias S |
collection | PubMed |
description | Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source, in light of global interconnectedness. By analysing a stochastic transmission model of COVID-19, we identify the appropriate monitoring requirements that make containment at source feasible. Specifically, precise risk assessment informed primarily by epidemiological indicators (e.g. accumulated hospitalization or mortality reports), is unlikely prior to VOC escape. Consequently, decision makers will need to make containment decisions without confident severity estimates. In contrast, successfully identifying and containing variants via genomic surveillance is realistic, provided sequence processing and dissemination is prompt. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-9465520 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Oxford University Press |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-94655202022-09-13 Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing Brett, Tobias S Rohani, Pejman PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source, in light of global interconnectedness. By analysing a stochastic transmission model of COVID-19, we identify the appropriate monitoring requirements that make containment at source feasible. Specifically, precise risk assessment informed primarily by epidemiological indicators (e.g. accumulated hospitalization or mortality reports), is unlikely prior to VOC escape. Consequently, decision makers will need to make containment decisions without confident severity estimates. In contrast, successfully identifying and containing variants via genomic surveillance is realistic, provided sequence processing and dissemination is prompt. Oxford University Press 2022-08-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9465520/ /pubmed/36111270 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. |
spellingShingle | Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Brett, Tobias S Rohani, Pejman Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title | Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title_full | Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title_fullStr | Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title_full_unstemmed | Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title_short | Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
title_sort | containing novel sars-cov-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing |
topic | Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9465520/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36111270 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT bretttobiass containingnovelsarscov2variantsatsourceispossiblewithhighintensitysequencing AT rohanipejman containingnovelsarscov2variantsatsourceispossiblewithhighintensitysequencing |