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Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source...

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Autores principales: Brett, Tobias S, Rohani, Pejman
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Oxford University Press 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9465520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36111270
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159
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author Brett, Tobias S
Rohani, Pejman
author_facet Brett, Tobias S
Rohani, Pejman
author_sort Brett, Tobias S
collection PubMed
description Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source, in light of global interconnectedness. By analysing a stochastic transmission model of COVID-19, we identify the appropriate monitoring requirements that make containment at source feasible. Specifically, precise risk assessment informed primarily by epidemiological indicators (e.g. accumulated hospitalization or mortality reports), is unlikely prior to VOC escape. Consequently, decision makers will need to make containment decisions without confident severity estimates. In contrast, successfully identifying and containing variants via genomic surveillance is realistic, provided sequence processing and dissemination is prompt.
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spelling pubmed-94655202022-09-13 Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing Brett, Tobias S Rohani, Pejman PNAS Nexus Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, control of transmission has been repeatedly thwarted by the emergence of variants of concern (VOC) and their geographic spread. Key questions remain regarding effective means of minimizing the impact of VOC, in particular the feasibility of containing them at source, in light of global interconnectedness. By analysing a stochastic transmission model of COVID-19, we identify the appropriate monitoring requirements that make containment at source feasible. Specifically, precise risk assessment informed primarily by epidemiological indicators (e.g. accumulated hospitalization or mortality reports), is unlikely prior to VOC escape. Consequently, decision makers will need to make containment decisions without confident severity estimates. In contrast, successfully identifying and containing variants via genomic surveillance is realistic, provided sequence processing and dissemination is prompt. Oxford University Press 2022-08-19 /pmc/articles/PMC9465520/ /pubmed/36111270 http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159 Text en © The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
Brett, Tobias S
Rohani, Pejman
Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title_full Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title_fullStr Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title_full_unstemmed Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title_short Containing novel SARS-CoV-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
title_sort containing novel sars-cov-2 variants at source is possible with high-intensity sequencing
topic Biological, Health, and Medical Sciences
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9465520/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36111270
http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/pnasnexus/pgac159
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