Time to doubling of serum creatinine in patients with diabetes in Ethiopian University Hospital: Retrospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND: Diabetic kidney disease is one of the long-term microvascular complications of diabetes. Doubling of serum creatinine is an important biomarker and predictor of diabetic kidney disease for patients with diabetes. This study aimed to determine the time in which the serum creatinine level is doubled measured from the baseline in patients with diabetes in Ethiopian University Hospital. METHODS: Analysis of the patients with diabetes medical records was employed retrospectively for five years from 2016 to 2020 in the University of Gondar Comprehensive Specialized Hospital. The Kaplan-Meier procedure was used to predict the time to which the serum creatinine level was doubled measured from the baseline value, while the Log-rank test and cox-proportional hazard regression models were employed to show significant serum creatinine (SCr) changes against the predictor variables. RESULTS: Among the total of 387 patients with diabetes, 54.5% were females with a mean age of 61.1±10.3 years. After 5-years of retrospective follow-up, 10.3% of patients with diabetes had doubled their serum creatinine level computed from the baseline values. The baseline and last SCr levels (measured in mg/dL) were 0.87 (±0.23) and 1.0(±0.37), respectively. This resulted in a mean SCr difference of 0.12±0.38 mg/dL. The SCr score was continuously increasing uninterruptedly for five years and measured as 0.94, 0.95, 0.94, 1 and 1.03 mg/dL, respectively. The average survival time taken for the serum creatinine to be doubled computed from baseline was 55.4 months (4.6 years). Patients treated with greater than or equal to 30 IU NPH were found 3.3 times more likely to have higher risks of doubling the serum creatinine level (DSC); with HR of 3.29 [(95%CI); 1.28–8.44: P = 0.013]. CONCLUSION: Compared with the baseline level, a significant proportion of patients with diabetes were found to have doubling of serum creatinine DSC within less than five years around four and half years. A continuous increasing in the SCr level was noted when measured from the baseline scores. Therefore, to preserve the renal function of patients with diabetes, close SCr level monitoring and regular follow-up would be recommended in combined with effective therapeutic interventions.