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A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania

In this paper we propose a three stages analysis of the evolution of Covid19 in Romania. There are two main issues when it comes to pandemic prediction. The first one is the fact that the numbers reported of infected and recovered are unreliable, however the number of deaths is more accurate. The se...

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Autores principales: Petrica, Marian, Stochitoiu, Radu D., Leordeanu, Marius, Popescu, Ionel
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9469061/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36100646
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18837-x
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author Petrica, Marian
Stochitoiu, Radu D.
Leordeanu, Marius
Popescu, Ionel
author_facet Petrica, Marian
Stochitoiu, Radu D.
Leordeanu, Marius
Popescu, Ionel
author_sort Petrica, Marian
collection PubMed
description In this paper we propose a three stages analysis of the evolution of Covid19 in Romania. There are two main issues when it comes to pandemic prediction. The first one is the fact that the numbers reported of infected and recovered are unreliable, however the number of deaths is more accurate. The second issue is that there were many factors which affected the evolution of the pandemic. In this paper we propose an analysis in three stages. The first stage is based on the classical SIR model which we do using a neural network. This provides a first set of daily parameters. In the second stage we propose a refinement of the SIR model in which we separate the deceased into a distinct category. By using the first estimate and a grid search, we give a daily estimation of the parameters. The third stage is used to define a notion of turning points (local extremes) for the parameters. We call a regime the time between these points. We outline a general way based on time varying parameters of SIRD to make predictions.
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spelling pubmed-94690612022-09-13 A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania Petrica, Marian Stochitoiu, Radu D. Leordeanu, Marius Popescu, Ionel Sci Rep Article In this paper we propose a three stages analysis of the evolution of Covid19 in Romania. There are two main issues when it comes to pandemic prediction. The first one is the fact that the numbers reported of infected and recovered are unreliable, however the number of deaths is more accurate. The second issue is that there were many factors which affected the evolution of the pandemic. In this paper we propose an analysis in three stages. The first stage is based on the classical SIR model which we do using a neural network. This provides a first set of daily parameters. In the second stage we propose a refinement of the SIR model in which we separate the deceased into a distinct category. By using the first estimate and a grid search, we give a daily estimation of the parameters. The third stage is used to define a notion of turning points (local extremes) for the parameters. We call a regime the time between these points. We outline a general way based on time varying parameters of SIRD to make predictions. Nature Publishing Group UK 2022-09-13 /pmc/articles/PMC9469061/ /pubmed/36100646 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18837-x Text en © The Author(s) 2022 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
Petrica, Marian
Stochitoiu, Radu D.
Leordeanu, Marius
Popescu, Ionel
A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title_full A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title_fullStr A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title_full_unstemmed A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title_short A regime switch analysis on Covid-19 in Romania
title_sort regime switch analysis on covid-19 in romania
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9469061/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36100646
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-022-18837-x
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