Impact of Massachusetts law prohibiting flavored tobacco products sales on cross-border cigarette sales

BACKGROUND: In June 2020, Massachusetts implemented a law prohibiting the sale of all flavored tobacco products, including menthol cigarettes. This law was associated with significant declines in overall cigarette and menthol cigarette sales in Massachusetts, however it is unknown whether the law has increased cross-border sales in neighboring states where menthol cigarettes are still sold. METHODS: U.S. cigarette retail scanner data were licensed from the IRi Company. Cigarette pack sales were summed in 4-week periods during January 2020-December 2021 (n = 832). Outcomes were state-level pack sales per 1000 population, overall and by flavor status (menthol and non-flavored). A difference-in-differences analysis was used to examine adjusted sales for Massachusetts border states (New Hampshire, Connecticut, Vermont, and Rhode Island) before (January 2020-May 2020) and after (June 2020-December 2021) the Massachusetts’s law, compared to 28 non-border states. Control variables included state and time fixed effects; real price per pack; tobacco control policies; COVID-19 cases and deaths, and related statewide closure; and state sociodemographic characteristics. RESULTS: Following the law, unadjusted sales of menthol, non-flavored, and overall cigarettes trended upward in border states; however, these increases were not statistically significant or different from sales patterns in non-border states. This finding persisted after accounting for product prices, tobacco control policies, the COVID-19 pandemic, sociodemographic factors, and fixed effects. CONCLUSION: Laws prohibiting the sale of flavored tobacco products, including menthol products, reduce access to these products, while having no significant impact on cross-border sales in neighboring states where menthol cigarettes are sold.