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Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease

The ecology and life history of wild animals influences their potential to harbour infectious disease. This observation has motivated studies identifying empirical relationships between traits of wild animals and historical patterns of spillover and emergence into humans. Although these studies have...

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Autores principales: Nuismer, Scott L., Basinski, Andrew J., Schreiner, Courtney, Whitlock, Alexander, Remien, Christopher H.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9470272/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36100013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.1080
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author Nuismer, Scott L.
Basinski, Andrew J.
Schreiner, Courtney
Whitlock, Alexander
Remien, Christopher H.
author_facet Nuismer, Scott L.
Basinski, Andrew J.
Schreiner, Courtney
Whitlock, Alexander
Remien, Christopher H.
author_sort Nuismer, Scott L.
collection PubMed
description The ecology and life history of wild animals influences their potential to harbour infectious disease. This observation has motivated studies identifying empirical relationships between traits of wild animals and historical patterns of spillover and emergence into humans. Although these studies have identified compelling broad-scale patterns, they are generally agnostic with respect to underlying mechanisms. Here, we develop mathematical models that couple reservoir population ecology with viral epidemiology and evolution to clarify existing verbal arguments and pinpoint the conditions that favour spillover and emergence. Our results support the idea that average lifespan influences the likelihood of an animal serving as a reservoir for human infectious disease. At the same time, however, our results show that the magnitude of this effect is sensitive to the rate of viral mutation. Our results also demonstrate that viral pathogens causing persistent infections or a transient immune response within the reservoir are more likely to fuel emergence. Genetically explicit stochastic simulations enrich these mathematical results by identifying relationships between the genetic basis of transmission and the risk of spillover and emergence. Together, our results clarify the scope of applicability for existing hypotheses and refine our understanding of emergence risk.
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spelling pubmed-94702722022-09-15 Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease Nuismer, Scott L. Basinski, Andrew J. Schreiner, Courtney Whitlock, Alexander Remien, Christopher H. Proc Biol Sci Evolution The ecology and life history of wild animals influences their potential to harbour infectious disease. This observation has motivated studies identifying empirical relationships between traits of wild animals and historical patterns of spillover and emergence into humans. Although these studies have identified compelling broad-scale patterns, they are generally agnostic with respect to underlying mechanisms. Here, we develop mathematical models that couple reservoir population ecology with viral epidemiology and evolution to clarify existing verbal arguments and pinpoint the conditions that favour spillover and emergence. Our results support the idea that average lifespan influences the likelihood of an animal serving as a reservoir for human infectious disease. At the same time, however, our results show that the magnitude of this effect is sensitive to the rate of viral mutation. Our results also demonstrate that viral pathogens causing persistent infections or a transient immune response within the reservoir are more likely to fuel emergence. Genetically explicit stochastic simulations enrich these mathematical results by identifying relationships between the genetic basis of transmission and the risk of spillover and emergence. Together, our results clarify the scope of applicability for existing hypotheses and refine our understanding of emergence risk. The Royal Society 2022-09-14 2022-09-14 /pmc/articles/PMC9470272/ /pubmed/36100013 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.1080 Text en © 2022 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Evolution
Nuismer, Scott L.
Basinski, Andrew J.
Schreiner, Courtney
Whitlock, Alexander
Remien, Christopher H.
Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title_full Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title_fullStr Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title_full_unstemmed Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title_short Reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
title_sort reservoir population ecology, viral evolution and the risk of emerging infectious disease
topic Evolution
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9470272/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/36100013
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2022.1080
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