Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Rollouts and Their Effects on Health Outcomes

BACKGROUND: Vaccination against the coronavirus disease (SARS-CoV-2) is understood to be the key way out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Limited evidence exists on the determinants of vaccine rollouts and their health effects at the country level. OBJECTIVE: Examine the determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and their effects on health outcomes. METHODS: Ordinary least squares regressions with standard errors clustered at the country level for Cross-section and Panel daily data of vaccinations and various health outcomes (new COVID-19 cases, fatalities, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions) for an unbalanced sample of about 200 countries during the period 16 December 2020 to 20 June 2021. RESULTS: We find evidence that: (i) early vaccine procurement, domestic production of vaccines, the severity of the pandemic, a country’s health infrastructure, and vaccine acceptance are significant determinants of the speed of vaccination rollouts; (ii) vaccine deployment significantly reduces new COVID-19 infections, Intensive Care Unit (ICU) admissions, and fatalities, and is more effective when coupled with stringent containment measures, or when a country is experiencing a large outbreak; and (iii) COVID-19 cases in neighboring countries can lead to an increase in a country’s domestic caseload, and hamper efforts in taming its own local outbreak. CONCLUSIONS: By providing an early broad overview of the quantitative empirical estimates of the determinants of vaccine rollouts and the effects of COVID-19 vaccines, our paper can help policymakers make informed decisions about local and global distributions of vaccines, as well as related policy tools, such as containment measure. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40258-022-00757-6.