Predictors of Dropout in a Digital Intervention for the Prevention and Treatment of Depression in Patients With Chronic Back Pain: Secondary Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials

BACKGROUND: Depression is a common comorbid condition in individuals with chronic back pain (CBP), leading to poorer treatment outcomes and increased medical complications. Digital interventions have demonstrated efficacy in the prevention and treatment of depression; however, high dropout rates are a major challenge, particularly in clinical settings. OBJECTIVE: This study aims to identify the predictors of dropout in a digital intervention for the treatment and prevention of depression in patients with comorbid CBP. We assessed which participant characteristics may be associated with dropout and whether intervention usage data could help improve the identification of individuals at risk of dropout early on in treatment. METHODS: Data were collected from 2 large-scale randomized controlled trials in which 253 patients with a diagnosis of CBP and major depressive disorder or subclinical depressive symptoms received a digital intervention for depression. In the first analysis, participants’ baseline characteristics were examined as potential predictors of dropout. In the second analysis, we assessed the extent to which dropout could be predicted from a combination of participants’ baseline characteristics and intervention usage variables following the completion of the first module. Dropout was defined as completing <6 modules. Analyses were conducted using logistic regression. RESULTS: From participants’ baseline characteristics, lower level of education (odds ratio [OR] 3.33, 95% CI 1.51-7.32) and both lower and higher age (a quadratic effect; age: OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.47-0.82, and age(2): OR 1.55, 95% CI 1.18-2.04) were significantly associated with a higher risk of dropout. In the analysis that aimed to predict dropout following completion of the first module, lower and higher age (age: OR 0.60, 95% CI 0.42-0.85; age(2): OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.13-2.23), medium versus high social support (OR 3.03, 95% CI 1.25-7.33), and a higher number of days to module completion (OR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.08) predicted a higher risk of dropout, whereas a self-reported negative event in the previous week was associated with a lower risk of dropout (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.08-0.69). A model that combined baseline characteristics and intervention usage data generated the most accurate predictions (area under the receiver operating curve [AUC]=0.72) and was significantly more accurate than models based on baseline characteristics only (AUC=0.70) or intervention usage data only (AUC=0.61). We found no significant influence of pain, disability, or depression severity on dropout. CONCLUSIONS: Dropout can be predicted by participant baseline variables, and the inclusion of intervention usage variables may improve the prediction of dropout early on in treatment. Being able to identify individuals at high risk of dropout from digital health interventions could provide intervention developers and supporting clinicians with the ability to intervene early and prevent dropout from occurring.